Three races stay within the 2017 System 1 World Championship: Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi. Mercedes-Benz already clinched the constructors’ title, its fourth in a row. However with 75 factors the utmost variety of factors any driver can nonetheless earn, the drivers’ title remains to be up for grabs. Two drivers have a shot — Lewis Hamilton of Mercedes and Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel — however the math isn’t wanting good for Vettel.
Hamilton, who has 331 factors and owns the tiebreaker ought to each he and Vettel find yourself tied in factors, wants to attain simply 9 factors over the ultimate three races — and that is if Vettel wins all three of these. Ought to Vettel win the ultimate three races, Vettel would find yourself with 340 factors.
Likelihood is, Hamilton will care for enterprise on Sunday. The one actual query is when does the celebration begin?
Hamilton will cosy his belts at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez in Mexico Metropolis with a 66-point lead. And he has extra race wins, which is the tiebreaker. Which means Vettel has to attain 67 extra factors than Hamilton within the subsequent few weeks, a job that can require unimaginable luck and fortune to come back Ferrari’s method. Or the alternative for Mercedes.
A graph exhibiting all of the alternative ways the factors might fall between Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel after the Mexican Grand Prix. The numbers in every field denote the lead Hamilton would carry.
Subsequent Gallery: Lewis Hamilton one step nearer to title after profitable pole for F1 US Grand Prix »
Gallery: F1 2017 United States Grand Prix, Sunday Oct. 22, 2017
Right here’s the way it breaks down. On the subsequent Grand Prix, there are 111 alternative ways the factors can fall between these two drivers. In 103 of these situations, Hamilton wins. Put it one other method. If Hamilton finishes fifth or higher, he secures the championship, regardless of the place the No. 5 Ferrari finishes. If Vettel finishes third or worse, the championship is Hamilton’s to take house. The prospect of seeing a brand new champion topped this weekend is excessive.
Let’s flip it round. What does Vettel want to perform to attain his fifth title? Typically talking, he wants to realize 22.33 factors on Hamilton on common over the ultimate three races. If he wins in Mexico, Hamilton should end sixth or worse. Vettel crossing the road second would require Hamilton to do no higher than 10th. Even when Hamilton DNFs the remainder of the season, Vettel should win not less than two races and end second within the third.
OK, none of this comes as a shock to anybody who has been following the 2017 season. However wanting via the numbers offers an concept of simply how steep a climb Vettel has in entrance of him.